Russia and Ukraine are at war almost three years now. But nobody knows how long it will lasts.
The Russian army would require at least 83 more years to capture the remaining 80% of Ukraine’s territory, says the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The American think tank argues that Russia believes the war could last indefinitely and doesn’t need major territorial gains in a single push.
ISW estimates that, with current progress and massive losses in manpower, Russia might take until 2108 to conquer all of Ukraine. However, they find this outcome unlikely.
“Putin’s theory of victory suggests Russia can outlast Ukraine and the West, making steady progress on the battlefield until Ukraine is defeated,” the ISW report explains.
Currently, Russian forces control roughly 20% of Ukraine, with little change on the frontlines.
This analysis emerges as hopes for a ceasefire grow. Russian officials met with U.S. officials in Saudi Arabia last week to discuss potential peace talks.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Moscow and Washington are preparing “expert talks” following the Riyadh meeting.
After discussions with Donald Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron said a ceasefire could happen in the coming weeks.
Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022
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