Ten years after the Paris climate agreement reshaped global climate ambitions, a new analysis reveals just how profoundly the world has changed. A decade ago, most economists assumed that rising prosperity would inevitably push emissions higher. Today, that idea is rapidly fading as more nations prove they can grow without increasing their carbon footprint.
A new report from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), released ahead of the Paris deal’s 10th anniversary, shows that 92% of the global economy has now “decoupled” consumption-based emissions from economic expansion. This shift signals that climate policies, clean-energy investment, and industry transitions are beginning to reshape how nations think about growth.
A New Shape to the Global Economy
Using the latest Global Carbon Budget data, the report highlights a striking trend: nearly half of the world’s economic output — about 46% of global GDP — now comes from countries that are expanding their economies while reducing emissions. Nations like Brazil, Egypt, and Colombia have shown measurable improvement, demonstrating that emerging markets are also moving in a cleaner direction.
Europe remains the strongest example of sustained decoupling. The UK, Switzerland, and Norway have recorded some of the most consistent declines in emissions while maintaining steady economic growth. What once seemed like a distant target has accelerated dramatically since 2015, underscoring how quickly global energy systems can shift when political and financial signals align.
China’s Slow Pivot Away from Coal
One of the most consequential developments is unfolding in China, the world’s largest emitter. While China’s emissions rose by 24% from 2015 to 2023, its economy grew more than twice as fast. Even more notable, emissions have flattened over the last 18 months. Many experts believe China may be approaching its long-predicted emissions peak — a milestone that could reshape global climate trajectories if it holds.
Countries Gaining Momentum — and Those Slipping Back
Twenty-one countries strengthened their decoupling since the Paris agreement, including Australia, Mexico, the UAE, Italy, Egypt, and South Africa. Another 22 countries — such as the US, Canada, Japan, and most of the EU — have maintained steady decoupling both before and after 2015.
The United States has continued its emissions decline despite political swings. Even attempts to roll back climate initiatives during Donald Trump’s presidency led only to brief increases that soon leveled out.
However, not every country stayed on course. New Zealand, Slovenia, Latvia, Lithuania, El Salvador, Togo, and COP29 host Azerbaijan once showed promise but have since returned to emissions-linked growth.
A Decade of Change — and What Comes Next
The report highlights how global ambition has shifted since the Paris agreement. Projected end-century warming has dropped from around 4°C to roughly 2.6°C. Global CO₂ growth has also slowed sharply, falling from 18.4% in the decade before the agreement to just 1.2% afterward.
Still, the world remains off track for the 1.5°C to 2°C target. Analysts warn that the next decade will determine whether the momentum of the past ten years becomes a permanent decline in global emissions.
John Lang, the report’s author, summarized it simply: the world is entering “the pre-conditioning stage” before real structural decline. What happens next will define the climate era ahead.
About The Author
